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Whereas the optimism of winning the Super Bowl usually reigns high in pretty much all of the 32 teams in the NFL when the season starts, very few teams are able to live up to the high expectations they impose on their fans. The 2014 NFL season is, like many other seasons, no different—many of the “powerless-yet-chest-thumping” teams and the “we’ll-go-from-zero-to- hero” believers are nowhere to be seen as far as the Vince Lombardi Trophy is concerned.

For all those who fancy their chances of winning the Super Bowl, well, no one is in any way trying to stop you from believing and betting on your team, even if they are winless in five games like the Jaguars. But if you really want to place your NFL bets with shrewdness, then you need to get in touch with reality and consider the following two facts about the Super Bowl.

First, when the season starts, every team has a fighting chance to win the Championship. But if your team already has three losses and the season is not that far off the to the playoffs won’t be that easy, leave alone the Super Bowl.

Secondly, getting to win the championship repeatedly or even defending it is very rare. If you think your team will get some undue advantage in winning it because they’ve won it before, you need to readjust your expectations because the playing field here is relatively equal for all teams.

So, having considered the aforementioned two factors and the entertaining NFL season we’ve had this far, which teams have the best odds of winning the Championship this year? Check out the teams below for the 5 best NFL picks, as far as the Super Bowl is concerned (NFL betting odds are provided by Mybookie.ag).

Seattle Seahawks (4-1 odds)

At the risk of it being said that I’m contradicting my facts, I still take the defending Super Bowl champions as my best pick. I agree with most bettors that three wins, one loss and a bye week they’ll be seeking to make up for doesn’t look too solid to go with. But taking into account the overwhelming nature of pressure they face as champions and their fighting spirit in the game they lost, the Hawks are in a great shape, enough to see them top the NFC West and contend for the championship.

Denver Broncos (17-4)

It seems like being last year’s Super Bowl runner ups injected a new lease of life for the Broncos. Peyton Manning and company have been busy breaking records and delivering convincing wins in their 4-1 start to the season. Though Denver’s heated challenge with the San Diego Chargers is one to watch out for, you can bet on the Broncos being among the key contenders for the Super Bowl. For bettors, remember that the 17-4 odds means a correct bet will pay you four and a quarter times your initial wager. Denver also has the best NFL odds to win the AFC West Division.

New England Patriots (10-1 Odds)

Despite getting of to a rather atypical slow start to the season, the Patriots have been growing stronger with each passing week. Their recent strong performance in Week 5 just showed how lethal the Pats can be. Observably, the Patriots are in dire need of better receivers. With better performance in the receiving department, their attacking will be more lethal and probably more consistent in winning games, hence giving the team a good chance for claiming the Super Bowl.

Green Bay Packers (10-1 Odds)

For this NFL community-owned team, let’s just say you should never write them off the playoffs. With a team spirit that can divide the strongest of teams and players like Aaron Rodgers who can multiply the woes of any weak defense, it would be a big mistake to subtract the Packers from the Super Bowl equation, unless their numbers don’t add up! Currently, the 3-2 Packers jointly sit atop the NFC North with the Detroit Lions.

San Diego Chargers (10-1 Odds)

The MVP-worthy performance of Philip Rivers for the Chargers this season is something many football fans would agree with. But more worryingly for other teams, the Chargers have had a an impressive four-game winning streak that has given them a 4-1 lead on top of the tough AFC West. So, even though most oddsmakers makers did not see the Chargers being this strong and may be even wrote them off the Championship, the team has proved that it is a worthy contender that can go the Super Bowl winning distance.

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