Ross Benjamin has been a proven NHL handicapping guru for the past 2 decades. Join us in reading his extremely insightful article, pertaining to how special team performance can be best utilized when making NHL Hockey lines.
One of the many NHL handicapping elements I’ve incorporated when evaluating a specific club’s performance level, relates to my special team efficiency ratings. The equation is quite simple. I take the percentage of time a team converts on their power play attempts, and then add that number to a percentage in which they kill off its own shorthanded situations. I’ve depicted two specific examples below.
2015-2016 NHL Regular Season Best and Worst Examples
Here’s an example of the best and worst NHL special team ratings from the 2015-2016 regular season campaign.
The Anaheim Ducks ranked at the top in this precise category. Anaheim converted on 23.1% of their power play chances, and killed off an impressive 87.2% of its shorthanded situations. Thus, by adding 23.1 to 97.2 Anaheim had a NHL best rating of 110.4.
On the opposite end of the spectrum was the Winnipeg Jets. They were successful on only 14.8% of their man advantage opportunities. Conversely, Winnipeg was able to kill off just 78.4% of opposition power play chances against them. The end result, a NHL low 93.2 special team efficiency rating.
Keep in mind, although this handicapping component is vitally important in daily assessments, it doesn’t serve as a sole method when making my NHL picks. Nevertheless, it’s a strong NHL handicapping tool, and one which shouldn’t be ignored.
Identifying Undervalued and Overvalued Teams
- Undervalued Teams: This pertains to clubs having a very good special teams rating, and they’re facing an opponent with a substantially inferior number. This is an especially profitable betting method when NHL hockey lines shows those teams to be moneyline underdogs.The return on investment (ROI) when making NHL money line underdog bets in these precise scenarios, far outweighs what otherwise seems like an uninspiring win percentage.
- Overvalued Teams: This entails teams that possess a good win/loss record, but they own a subpar to poor special team rating. That’s especially the case when NHL hockey lines displays those clubs as money line favorites.It’s just a matter of time before the lack of efficiency on special teams catches up with them. A buyer beware red flag should be in plain sight when that exact condition arises.
The Optimum Time for Use
When play resumes after the NHL all-star break, every team is already into the second half of their schedules. I’ve found these ratings to be most useful at that specific time and beyond. My conclusion in this regard is based on a large sample size. Since implementing this NHL handicapping logic five years ago, it’s provided me with another additional edge in my daily pursuit of winning NHL bets.